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Voyager Therapeutics, Inc. (VYGR)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 2025 was a transitional quarter: collaboration revenue fell to $5.20M as revenue recognized under Neurocrine agreements declined, driving a net loss of $33.4M and diluted EPS of -$0.57, versus consensus EPS of -$0.53 and revenue of ~$9.50M (miss) . EPS and revenue missed Wall Street consensus by $0.04 and ~$4.30M, respectively; analysts had 11 EPS and 12 revenue estimates*.
  • Cash runway extended from mid‑2027 to 2028 following cost actions, supporting multiple clinical inflection points (four programs expected in clinic in 2026–2027) .
  • Alzheimer’s franchise expanded with a new APOE program; ongoing anti‑tau antibody MAD dosing (VY7523) and IND‑enabling work for tau‑silencing gene therapy (VY1706) continue; initial tau PET data for VY7523 expected in H2 2026 .
  • Strategic partnerships remain a key non‑dilutive capital source: 11 partnered programs with up to $2.6B in potential development-stage milestones, including up to $35M for FA/GBA programs entering the clinic (not assumed in runway) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Cash runway extended into 2028 due to restructuring and cost efficiency, positioning the company to advance multiple programs through critical readouts: “we are positioned to get well beyond multiple potential clinical inflection points” .
  • AD franchise broadened with an APOE program combining IV TRACER capsid delivery and bifunctional payload to silence APOE4 while delivering APOE2; preclinical data showed significant APOE4 reduction with increased APOE2 expression in AD‑relevant brain regions .
  • Continued progress toward clinical milestones: Neurocrine-guided INDs for FA and GBA1 expected in 2025 with trial initiations in 2026; VY1706 advancing toward IND in 2026; VY7523 MAD trial ongoing with H2 2026 PET readout .

What Went Wrong

  • Revenue headwind: collaboration revenue declined to $5.20M (vs $29.58M in Q2 2024), primarily from lower recognition under Neurocrine collaborations, widening net loss to $33.4M (vs $10.1M YoY) .
  • Estimates miss: EPS (-$0.57) missed consensus (-$0.53) and collaboration revenue ($5.20M) missed consensus (~$9.50M), underscoring variability in partner-driven revenue timing and recognition* .
  • Non-GAAP net collaboration revenue fell sharply to $2.81M as reimbursed R&D pass‑throughs were excluded, highlighting underlying operating revenue pressure .

Financial Results

MetricQ2 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Collaboration Revenue ($USD Millions)$29.58 $6.47 $5.20
Net Loss ($USD Millions)-$10.14 -$31.02 -$33.38
Diluted EPS ($USD)-$0.18 -$0.53 -$0.57
R&D Expenses ($USD Millions)$34.45 $31.53 $31.33
G&A Expenses ($USD Millions)$10.15 $9.64 $10.50
Total Operating Expenses ($USD Millions)$44.60 $41.17 $41.83
Non-GAAP ReconciliationQ2 2024Q2 2025
Net Collaboration Revenue ($USD Millions)$27.62 $2.81
Net R&D Expenses ($USD Millions)$32.49 $28.94
Balance SheetDec 31, 2024Mar 31, 2025Jun 30, 2025
Cash, Cash Equivalents & Marketable Securities ($USD Millions)$332.39 $295.12 $262.04
Deferred Revenue ($USD Millions)$30.40 $25.86 $23.12
Total Stockholders’ Equity ($USD Millions)$299.76 $272.70 $243.94
Estimates vs Actual (Q2 2025)ConsensusActualSurprise
Collaboration Revenue ($USD Millions)$9.50*$5.20 -$4.30*
Diluted EPS ($USD)-$0.53*-$0.57 -$0.04*
EPS - # of Estimates11*——
Revenue - # of Estimates12*——
Target Price Consensus Mean ($USD)15.00*15.00*—

*Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment breakdown: Not applicable; revenue is primarily collaboration-based without product revenue segmentation .

KPIs: Program pipeline advancement (11 partnered programs), clinical milestone timelines, and cash runway (to 2028) .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Cash RunwayMulti-yearInto mid‑2027 Into 2028 Raised runway (extended)
Potential Milestones (Dev-stage)Multi-yearNot quantified in Q1 PR beyond up to $35M near-term Up to $2.6B; up to $35M tied to FA/GBA entering clinic (not assumed in runway) Expanded/clarified totals; near-term unchanged
Quarterly Earnings CallsOngoingNo quarterly calls planned going forward No Q2 call transcript availableMaintained
Revenue/OpEx/EPS GuidanceFY/QuarterlyNone providedNone providedMaintained (no formal financial guidance)

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ4 2024 (Q-2)Q1 2025 (Q-1)Q2 2025 (Current)Trend
AD Tau Programs (VY7523, VY1706)SAD showed PK and CSF:serum 0.3%; MAD initiated; PET in H2 2026; third‑party tau data (UCB, Merck, J&J) viewed as validating AD/PD data: VY1706 NHP knockdown up to 73%; MAD dosing ongoing; IND‑enabling advancing MAD dosing ongoing; PET H2 2026 reaffirmed; VY1706 toward IND in 2026 Execution progressing; timelines intact
CNS Delivery PlatformsTRACER IV capsids; ALPL non‑viral shuttle “plug‑and‑play” potential and BBB delivery strategy ASGCT presentations on capsids and vectorized anti‑Aβ; strong cross‑CNS transduction at IV doses APOE program added using IV TRACER capsid; AD franchise now four assets Platform broadened; AD focus deepened
Partnerships & Non‑Dilutive CapitalEmphasis on partnerships ($8.2B potential milestones discussed on call context) Neurocrine INDs expected 2025; up to $35M milestones in 2025–2026 11 partnered programs; up to $2.6B development milestones potential Ongoing reliance; clarity on milestone pool
Cash Runway & Cost DisciplineRunway into mid‑2027; disciplined G&A Runway into mid‑2027; higher cash use in Q1 due to timing Runway extended into 2028 via restructuring/cost efficiencies Improving durability

Management Commentary

  • “We firmly believe Voyager’s science has the potential to drive transformative neurotherapeutics, and that the efficiencies we have created this year give us the runway to prove it.” — Alfred W. Sandrock, Jr., M.D., Ph.D., CEO .
  • “We expect to have four programs in the clinic next year, and with our runway now extended into 2028, we are positioned to get well beyond multiple potential clinical inflection points.” — Alfred W. Sandrock, Jr., M.D., Ph.D. .
  • On delivery innovation: management highlighted ALPL shuttle potential as complementary to transferrin receptor shuttles, noting possible safety/kinetic advantages and “plug‑and‑play” prospects for multiple payloads .

Q&A Highlights

Note: No Q2 2025 earnings call transcript was available; company indicated in Q1 it does not plan to host quarterly results calls going forward . Highlights below reflect Q4 2024 call for continuity:

  • Tau strategy: Differences between tau antibody epitopes (C‑terminal targeted efficacy) and knockdown mechanisms; MAD design informed by emerging external data to target earlier AD populations .
  • ALPL shuttle: Potential “plug‑and‑play” BBB shuttle across modalities (proteins, antibodies, oligos), with in‑vivo animal data targeted and comparisons to transferrin shuttles planned .
  • TFR shuttle limitations: Management noted hematologic adverse events and human genetics insights implying potential advantages for ALPL .
  • External readouts: Team watching J&J and Merck anti‑tau antibody studies for validation and clinical significance of impeding tau spread .

Estimates Context

  • Q2 2025 results missed consensus: revenue ~$9.50M* vs actual $5.20M, EPS -$0.53* vs actual -$0.57; 11 EPS and 12 revenue estimates informed consensus*. The shortfall reflects lower collaboration revenue recognition (primarily Neurocrine), which management cited as the primary driver of YoY decline .
  • Model implications: Street may need to lower near‑term collaboration revenue and widen loss assumptions, while extending cash runway assumptions to 2028 based on cost actions and interest income trajectory .
    *Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Narrative shift: despite near‑term revenue variability, runway extended to 2028 provides time to hit clinical inflection points across AD assets (VY7523 PET in H2 2026; VY1706 IND in 2026) — potential medium‑term catalysts .
  • Collaboration dependency: revenue timing remains sensitive to partner program accounting; expect quarterly volatility until internally owned programs deliver clinical data .
  • Non‑GAAP lens: net collaboration revenue ($2.81M) and net R&D ($28.94M) show underlying operating picture excluding reimbursed R&D pass‑throughs, helpful for trend analysis .
  • Franchise expansion: APOE program adds a differentiated genetic risk modulation angle; earlier‑stage but synergistic with tau and anti‑Aβ approaches for potential combination/sequencing in AD .
  • Partnerships as optionality: 11 partnered programs and up to $2.6B milestone pool (not in runway) create non‑dilutive upside; near‑term $35M tied to FA/GBA programs entering clinic (dependent on INDs and trial starts) .
  • Risk balance: absence of product revenue, reliance on third‑party readouts (Merck/J&J tau), and partner progress introduce execution and timing risk; however, cost discipline and interest income underpin extended runway .
  • Trading angle: The quarter’s miss vs consensus and lower collaboration revenue recognition are near‑term stock headwinds; upcoming AD readouts and partner IND progress are potential catalysts to re‑rate medium‑term expectations .